Future-telling— 2016 Adobe Edition: Ten Predictions

Tuesday, April 5, 2016
Digital Marketing
Future-telling— 2016 Adobe Edition: Ten Predictions

Wish you could get ahead of the rapid pace of change in marketing today? At Adobe Summit 2016, ThomasARTS was taken away on a journey into the future of digital marketing with R “Ray” Wang from Constellation Research and Adobe’s Principal Analyst and Director, Tamara Gaffney. At this year’s event in Las Vegas, they predicted these forthcoming digital video, social media, advertising, mobile and commerce trends. Check them out below:

Prediction 1: Tablets will make a return as flexitouch screens.

Supporting statistics from Adobe:

·       Tablet usage has flatlined, but the bleeding has stopped, and the decline has bottomed out. Tablets account for roughly eight percent of page views, while smartphones are now contributing almost 30 percent of page views, with a point of intersection between tablets and smartphones at eight percent in January of 2013.

Prediction 2: Share of smartphone traffic will shift back to Android. Contributing factors include the pass-along use of Apple devices going down because of trade-in programs.  

Supporting statistics from Adobe:

·       55 percent of smartphone visits to its website are from iOS, while 45 percent are from Android (even though Android phone sales exceed Apple phone sales).

 Prediction 3: Biometric authentication will overtake passwords by 2020.

 

Supporting statistics from Adobe:

·       Examples of companies leveraging biometric authentication include MasterCard’s new “Selfie” authentication as well as the ability to authenticate with your heartbeat or fingerprint.

Prediction 4: By the time Gen Z grows up, awareness-building marketing will be over. The millennial backlash against advertising is messing up navigation on mobile devices already.  

 

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Supporting statistics from Adobe:

·       Kids under 12 have been self-trained to avoid ads. The advertising industry will have to learn to monetize mobile ad visits in a way that makes sense to the demographic. This is likely to be done through bundling (i.e., $5M placed in Super Bowl ads in 2016 included digital ad placement bundling).

 Prediction 4: Voice will rock our world. Facebook M is the most anticipated voice feature, while the Amazon Echo is the most admired. Siri is not the clear leader in voice activation via mobile.

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Supporting statistics from Adobe:

·       Voice is an open battleground — and the buying patters and selling patters will come together in the near future.  In the last six months Facebook traffic has gone up, supporting the growth of Facebook M, or their voice product. The number of 30- to 50-year-olds on Facebook is going up, and people don’t like to type on their mobile device — voice will be their next crutch.

 Prediction 5: Android TV will cut into Apple TV and Roku (Android launching an operating system for TV will be a game changer).  This is because of multichannel device usage and time-shifting on TV watching. There is not one single strategy for each channel.

Supporting statistics from Adobe:

·       TV Everywhere is at 17.4 percent market penetration.

·       Kids are switching to digital video — seeing 81 percent growth, quarter over quarter, in frequency of viewing with “teens and toons.” Gen Z is getting addicted to digital video.

·       Apple TV is winning at 10 percent market share, but Roku is picking up market share due to high-definition box released during 2015 holiday season.

Prediction 6: Content context will be your new mantra. Contextual relevance is poor, so overall engagement is down. Tying back context using the context clues of weather, time, identity and location will help with engagement, and consumers have come to expect not only great content but content in context.

Prediction 7: Internet of Things (IoT) will become mission critical, will reach its peak and then take a steep nose dive

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Supporting statistics from Adobe:

·       When progressive IoT products fail, such as Smart Tires not skipping the pothole, consumers become outraged. A good example of this was the failure of Nest, with the malfunction of its video capabilities, which people were using as a baby monitor. There is no such thing as 100 percent reliability.

Prediction 8: Bandwidth will become a public utility. Bandwidth demands from IoT + Smart TV + computers/mobile combined with Internet providers losing other sources of revenue will cause prices to go up, resulting in consumer outcry and increased government scrutiny.

Supporting statistics from Adobe:

·       Because of the costs of so many devices being connected, the costs of bandwidth will go up. Marketers will have to think about content delivery on a time scale.

Prediction 9: Virtual reality will affect B2B, health care, and gaming. Practical uses include allowing medical professionals to practice an operation in a virtual setting.  

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Supporting statistics from Adobe:

·       Oculus Rift has 62 percent of social buzz around virtual reality.

·       PlayStation has announced a virtual reality device at a lower price point than Oculus Rift.

Prediction 10: 2016 will be the year of “identity,” tying users across devices.

Supporting statistics from Adobe:

·       The average user is on 7.2 devices, and marketers need to shift from marketing to cookies to marketing to people.



Jordan Yospe

Experienced in branding and direct response marketing. Expertise includes an array of media, including: Direct Mail, TV, Print, and Outdoor, with particular expertise in Interactive/Digital Marketing (CPM, CPC, CPL, SEO & Social Media) and Radio.

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